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Postby The Donator » Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:17 am

grodney wrote:
Clue wrote:Tebow minus 2.5 at Fitzpatrick....errrr Denver over Buffalo. Maybe the easiest play of the season.


That was nearly Fausch-like.

No doubt, and Tebow's cute little run at being an NFL qb is thankfully over.
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Postby z-man » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:27 am

Clue wrote:Tebow minus 2.5 at Fitzpatrick....errrr Denver over Buffalo. Maybe the easiest play of the season. I also have the Eagles over the Cowboys to put a HUGE scare into my bet with the Robinson twins.

Wow, just looked at the updated lines and the Eagles have been bet down to a pick 'em. All the money is on the Eagles. There are a few interesting dogs this week. My favorites in order are: Oak over KC, SD over Det, Sea over SF and maybe a flyer on the Rams +12 at Pit.


Let's just see how you did there Clue...
Denver over Buffalo - nope (Easiest play of the season?? I think not)
Eagles over the Cowboys - yep
Oakland over KC - yep
SD over Detroit - nope
Seattle over San Fran - nope
Rams over Pitt with the spread - nope
I certainly won't be betting based on your logic...

My weekend was the following...and it was a good weekend
(All taking the spread into account)
Eagles over Dallas - yep
Detroit over San Diego - yep
New Orleans over Atlanta - yep
Missouri over North Carolina - yep
Under on the Long Beach State / K State - yep

I've also got 15-1 on the Clippers winning the NBA title...(and 2.5 to 1 on the Heat winning it to cover my bet)...I know it's early but the chatter here in LA is these guys want to show the Lakers what's up. I've got a guy in the office who picked up season tickets for the Clips before the trade. His tickets were 120 face value and he's sold off about 8 games for prices over 600 bucks a piece...Now that's an investment :wink:
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Postby The Donator » Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:01 pm

z-man wrote:
Clue wrote:Tebow minus 2.5 at Fitzpatrick....errrr Denver over Buffalo. Maybe the easiest play of the season. I also have the Eagles over the Cowboys to put a HUGE scare into my bet with the Robinson twins.

Wow, just looked at the updated lines and the Eagles have been bet down to a pick 'em. All the money is on the Eagles. There are a few interesting dogs this week. My favorites in order are: Oak over KC, SD over Det, Sea over SF and maybe a flyer on the Rams +12 at Pit.


Let's just see how you did there Clue...
Denver over Buffalo - nope (Easiest play of the season?? I think not)
Eagles over the Cowboys - yep
Oakland over KC - yep
SD over Detroit - nope
Seattle over San Fran - nope
Rams over Pitt with the spread - nope
I certainly won't be betting based on your logic...

My weekend was the following...and it was a good weekend
(All taking the spread into account)
Eagles over Dallas - yep
Detroit over San Diego - yep
New Orleans over Atlanta - yep
Missouri over North Carolina - yep
Under on the Long Beach State / K State - yep

I've also got 15-1 on the Clippers winning the NBA title...(and 2.5 to 1 on the Heat winning it to cover my bet)...I know it's early but the chatter here in LA is these guys want to show the Lakers what's up. I've got a guy in the office who picked up season tickets for the Clips before the trade. His tickets were 120 face value and he's sold off about 8 games for prices over 600 bucks a piece...Now that's an investment :wink:

Yeah emotions and Tebow love certainly wont win you any money in the short or long term. Ive learned that the hard way (the emotion part).

Looks like youll be making $ for sure on your NBA bets. Id get into it but that would be a whole other thread. 15-1 on the Clips is a decent line, but they wont win. Youll get it back on the Heat bet tho.
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Postby z-man » Tue Dec 27, 2011 12:28 pm

The Donator wrote:Looks like youll be making $ for sure on your NBA bets. Id get into it but that would be a whole other thread. 15-1 on the Clips is a decent line, but they wont win. Youll get it back on the Heat bet tho.


Yeah...the Clippers are a long shot but I won on my 15-1 with the Mavs last year so you never know...I figure the Heat are the team to beat this year anyway so covering with them made sense...
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Postby Clue » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:21 pm

z-man wrote:Denver over Buffalo - nope (Easiest play of the season?? I think not)
Eagles over the Cowboys - yep
Oakland over KC - yep
SD over Detroit - nope
Seattle over San Fran - nope
Rams over Pitt with the spread - nope
I certainly won't be betting based on your logic...

I freely admit I bought into the Tebow hype a little too much, and by Tebow hype I mean the actual value of Tebow, no turnovers and a team (defense) that really believed in itself. Well, the turnovers were ridiculous. I actually watched a decent chunk of this game and Denver was stronger on both sides of the ball. Buffalo had a kick return early, Denver had one called back, and then the turnovers came in bunches.

The rest of the upsets were not picks, it was a confidence pick. They were all long shots to one degree or another. Seattle was up all game and just couldn't close the deal. No idea how it went down. I also didn't know Vincent Jackson was out and SD obviously folded early. I would never have bought into SD for a second had I known that. And the Rams had several chances to put themselves in that game, but after missing eventually folded and quit to a lousy Pittsburgh Steeler team.

But fear not, I'm back with my play of the week! Cowboys over the Giants! I haven't looked that close at anything else, but this NFC east race has been fascinating and I can't wait for this game. In reality these teams have so much firepower but are so inconsistent on both sides of the ball that either team could win by 28. However, that will likely be a wash and it will end up being a close game again. I'm assuming Romo will be fine, and I just feel like it's more likely that the Cowboys start to heat up and finally make a playoff run. I'm predicting that they get through round 1 as well, and depending on who goes where could really turn into a cinderella story.

I hope the Clippers put it together. My son, Griffin, and I are certainly interested. However, I've been a closet Heat fan since HS when my punk math teacher confiscated my hat then proceeded to get it stolen off his desk then claimed ignorance and never took responsibility for ever having it. Obviously I got over it......NOT!!! I'm so glad the Heat are running. It almost makes the NBA watchable. I tried watching that Christmas day Clippers game and I almost shoved an ice pick through my eye. Regular season NBA could not be less boring.
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Postby grodney » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:41 pm

Clue wrote:However, I've been a closet Heat fan


The bar owner was offering free drinks to everyone if the Bobcats won last night. The place went crazy when whoeveritwas made the 3 with 12 seconds left to go up by 1. Of course then Wade came with the dagger. His little Cam-style superman afterward was pretty damn funny.
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Postby The Donator » Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:58 pm

grodney wrote:
Clue wrote:However, I've been a closet Heat fan


The bar owner was offering free drinks to everyone if the Bobcats won last night. The place went crazy when whoeveritwas made the 3 with 12 seconds left to go up by 1. Of course then Wade came with the dagger. His little Cam-style superman afterward was pretty damn funny.

Ha yeah, as Cam was sitting courtside 15 feet away from him.
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Postby Clue » Thu Dec 29, 2011 9:21 pm

I missed that. Saw the score on the ticker. Awesome.

I wish I had *got* the Steve Smith boat celebration at the time. One of the best ever.
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Postby SARG27044 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:53 am

Jackson played...2 catches, 41 yards. Had to sit him as he was a game time decision tho. Put in Jordy instead...yesssssss
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Postby Clue » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:13 pm

I'm taking one favorite and 3 dogs. Vikings -1.5, Dallas +3, KC +3, and Washington +8.5. I like Dallas and KC to win outright.

I actually hate the Washington pick, but I'm teasing them to 18.5 and teasing down the Patriots to -0.5 amongst a couple others.
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Postby Clue » Sun Jan 01, 2012 4:19 pm

Too funny. Everything I post here gets killed and all my secondary picks hit. Guess I'll shut my mouth and go collect my money...
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Postby z-man » Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:24 am

Clue wrote:I'm taking one favorite and 3 dogs. Vikings -1.5, Dallas +3, KC +3, and Washington +8.5. I like Dallas and KC to win outright.

I actually hate the Washington pick, but I'm teasing them to 18.5 and teasing down the Patriots to -0.5 amongst a couple others.

I took your advice on the Dallas and KC games...(Don't ask me why). Split so I wasn't too unhappy but I had a feeling Dallas was going to blow it again like they've done so many times before (shoulda listened to the little voice inside my head)

My parlay last night went down to the wire...Oky State to win outright and over with a score of 74. Looked like a bust the entire night until that missed field. Once that happened I knew they'd lock it up in OT.
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Postby Clue » Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:00 pm

I had zero doubt about the KC game and wished I had wrapped a bunch of bets around it. Not sure why I suddenly became a Dallas fan this year, yet I took the Giants in the previous matchup. I guess the logic being the Giants are terrible at home and what has been a coin flip game I like taking the points. However, the Giants were way more healthy. Terrible pick on my part.

The picks are hard enough, but what's driving me crazy is getting a good betting strategy. I hate straight bets. Let's say I pick at a rate of 65% which would be phenomenal, and I play 100 bets at let's say $10/bet to make it simple. That's $1000 total play at which you win $650, but lose $385 for a net of $265 or 26.5% of your total investment. Certainly not a terrible investment, but that's realistically your best case scenario. At 60% success rate you're up 16%.

But parlays are terrible as well, however I started to toy with wrapping 4-5 bets around a single pick that I liked. Let's say instead of betting 1 team at $50, I bet 5 $10 2-team parlays. If the feature team loses I actually save $5 because I'm not paying juice on the parlays and I was going to lose the $50 anyway. But if they win then I'm looking at a good shot at making some good money. 1-5 pays $26, but I lose $40 for a net of -$14, 2-5 pays $52, but I lose $30 for a net of $22, 3-5 pays $78 -$20 for a $58 net, 4-5 pays $104 - $10, and hitting all of them would pay $130. Probably doesn't pan out as well as it would to do 2-3 completely separate parlays, but it's more fun that just one straight bet.
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Postby Captain » Wed Jan 04, 2012 9:21 am

Clue wrote:Let's say I pick at a rate of 65% which would be phenomenal, and I play 100 bets at let's say $10/bet to make it simple. That's $1000 total play at which you win $650, but lose $385 for a net of $265 or 26.5% of your total investment. Certainly not a terrible investment


Really?? Tell you what, you give me $1000, Ill give you $265, and we'll call it good.
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Postby GDL17921 » Wed Jan 04, 2012 11:28 am

I think in this scenario he's not putting the grand up front, that's just what he risked losing. But here, I'll give Clue the opportunity to use his best one liner ever.

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