MasterLock Lock of the Century Tonight

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Postby Clue » Fri Dec 02, 2011 4:38 am

Picked 2 of 7 correct last week yet still managed to make money parlaying the 2 I got right. Stuck this week so far picking Kuchar -1/2 over Fowler in round 1 of the Chevron World Challenge (blew a 4 shot lead with 3 holes to go) and taking the Eagles -3. Nice 1-3 record against the NFC West. I'm sure Rodney can help me out with how many teams have that bad a record against that division in the last couple years...

However, I'm incredibly confident with Dallas -4 1/2 at Arizona. I have no idea how this isn't better than a touchdown. I might have to actually do some research on this game in case I'm missing something. Packers -6 1/2 looks pretty good as well.
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Postby grodney » Fri Dec 02, 2011 8:19 am

Clue wrote:Nice 1-3 record against the NFC West. I'm sure Rodney can help me out with how many teams have that bad a record against that division in the last couple years...


Well, the Broncos last year, but that was before they had TIM TEBOW!!!!! Oh wait, they did have him. What the hell?

Cleveland has a strong shot this year.
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Postby The Donator » Fri Dec 02, 2011 1:00 pm

Who wants to lay 4-1 odds that D-How comes back to Orlando for me?
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Postby SARG27044 » Fri Dec 09, 2011 10:21 am

The Donator wrote:Who wants to lay 4-1 odds that D-How comes back to Orlando for me?
Good thing you changed your avatar.... :lol:
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Postby Clue » Sun Dec 11, 2011 5:49 pm

Sick covers this week. Det way out front not only blows the cover, but almost blows the game outright. Patriots cover with a FG, but throw a pick on 3rd down. Cin in control all game lose at the last second. And, Tennessee almost upset the Saints.

Hardly a lock, but I like the Giant's money line tonight. Better road team. Bradshaw and Manningham are healthy, plus some linebacker that's supposed to be a good cover linebacker against Witten. However, Cowboys get Austin back plus a fullback that had them running at nearly 7 yards a carry a few weeks back. But the Cowboys are terrible in Dec and there's no way they're gonna lock up the division when given a chance. The value is on the Giants.
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Postby discgolfduval » Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:05 am

Clue wrote:Sick covers this week. Det way out front not only blows the cover, but almost blows the game outright. Patriots cover with a FG, but throw a pick on 3rd down. Cin in control all game lose at the last second. And, Tennessee almost upset the Saints.

Hardly a lock, but I like the Giant's money line tonight. Better road team. Bradshaw and Manningham are healthy, plus some linebacker that's supposed to be a good cover linebacker against Witten. However, Cowboys get Austin back plus a fullback that had them running at nearly 7 yards a carry a few weeks back. But the Cowboys are terrible in Dec and there's no way they're gonna lock up the division when given a chance. The value is on the Giants.


*Hardly a lock* may be the understatement of the year...unbelievable. :roll: :roll:
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Postby Clue » Tue Dec 13, 2011 4:54 am

I saw GB opened at -13.5 at KC. Love them at this number, but it's already moved to 14 and will likely climb a little more.

There's a couple picks I'm going to throw out. Keep in mind that the best picks are like getting all in with bottom 2 against a flush draw. A lot of funny things can happen. First, I'm picking the Colts to win! I don't know what Hasselbeck's status is and I don't care! The Colts continue to play hard despite being huge underdogs week in and week out. They've covered in their last 2 (possibly more), and Orlovsky's been moving the ball reasonably well. They're at home and at slightly less than a touchdown dog they're really only a play or two away from pulling off the upset. I like the money line play here better than taking the points.

An even bigger dog I like is Jacksonville Thu against the Falcons. They played hard for their interim coach last week, and MJD continues to put up improbable numbers for such an otherwise lousy team. The Falcons are the hardest team in the league to bet for or against, but they rarely run away and hide, so on a short week and a possible look ahead game I like the 11 pts that Jacksonville is getting.

The game of the week is NE at the Broncos. I think this is going to be a lot of fun to watch. NE can't stop a nose bleed, but will certainly be able to put up points enough to keep pace if not pull ahead. NE essentially plays a cover-2 all game which is what Tebow moves the ball against late in games. It wouldn't shock me to see NE make a mere mortal out of TT, but who knows. God hates Marion Barber, and he may hate Brady as well. I'll be laying the 6.5.

I'm sick that Philly is gonna make a late run when my Jets are coming to town. Jets are a Dec team and are looking better. Tomlinson is healthy. Shonne Greene is running better, but they suffered a big loss with Jim Leonard going down for the season. Vick's return, and maybe more importantly, Maclin's return sparked the Eagles, and even the maligned Desaun Jackson got in the end zone last week. I could see either team winning by 2 touchdowns. I don't have the foggiest clue what's going to happen.
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Postby The Donator » Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:46 am

The last thing I would do is bet on or against a Denver game right now.
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Postby grodney » Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:55 am

Where is the TJ Yates mania??!??!! I mean, it's him WILLING his team to win, right? He is the chosen one.
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Postby Clue » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:29 am

grodney wrote:Where is the TJ Yates mania??!??!! I mean, it's him WILLING his team to win, right? He is the chosen one.

Majkowski goes down and Favre steps in. Bledsoe goes down and Brady steps in. Leinert goes down and Yates steps in. The Leinert injury may have been the single biggest blessing in the NFL this year. The Texans are a viable playoff contender. The Titans may have won the division if Leinert had stayed healthy.
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Postby Clue » Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:44 am

The Donator wrote:The last thing I would do is bet on or against a Denver game right now.

It's a great story. I'm really enjoying it despite my Jets falling victim. However, it will come to an end and I expect the Patriots to be well prepared. It's simple math. I think there's 3 possible outcomes to this game: Broncos ride another Tebow miracle past the Patriots, good game but Patriots just prove to be too strong, or it's a complete blowout. 2 out of 3 outcomes are good for me.

Lost in all of this is that Tebow has led his team to be scoreless through 55 mins....twice, and was a cliche coaching strategy away from being shut out at home for the first time ever. Also, there's a few things I can count on this week. One, the Broncos are going to get the full attention of the Patriots. The last thing Belichick is going to stand for is another Josh McDaniel's embarrassment at Mile High. The 2nd is that Brady is pissed. Did you see them screaming on the sideline at Washington?!? My man wants to be perfect on offense and they know that no lead is safe against Tebow so I expect them to pile on the points early and often. Finally, Belichick is the one guy that is so secure with his job that he's willing to do what needs done to win the game. He'll pass on 4th down. He'll blitz instead of playing prevent. He's not going to do the lame things you'd expect from Garrett, Lovie, or Ferentz. Clock management is impeccable.

One last thing for you Lindsley, did you listen to the Bill Simmon's podcast this week? They were talking about how bad the Patriots secondary is and that Julian Edelman was their best defensive back which led to the joke, Edelman island. I was in tears laughing so hard.
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Postby Clue » Sat Dec 24, 2011 4:41 am

Tebow minus 2.5 at Fitzpatrick....errrr Denver over Buffalo. Maybe the easiest play of the season. I also have the Eagles over the Cowboys to put a HUGE scare into my bet with the Robinson twins.

Wow, just looked at the updated lines and the Eagles have been bet down to a pick 'em. All the money is on the Eagles. There are a few interesting dogs this week. My favorites in order are: Oak over KC, SD over Det, Sea over SF and maybe a flyer on the Rams +12 at Pit.
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Postby blkwizardsonny » Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:26 am

wouldnt say oak is a dog agnst kc ?
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Postby Clue » Sat Dec 24, 2011 4:35 pm

Well, they were getting 2.5 which means on a neutral field they'd be about a pt favorite or a 4 pt favorite at home.

Wow, who woke Buffalo up. Just like the NE game, Denver marches to open the game then, like Clue, has no idea what to do with a lead.

Very torn on the Giants/Jets game. I wanted the Jets to win, but the Giants winning eliminates the Eagles to secure $150 for me! Thanks RobinSONs.

Wish I had the farm on the Eagles today as Romo has just been pulled.
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Postby grodney » Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:07 am

Clue wrote:Tebow minus 2.5 at Fitzpatrick....errrr Denver over Buffalo. Maybe the easiest play of the season.


That was nearly Fausch-like.
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